The custodians of trillions of dollars of global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China’s yuan as the splintering of world trade and geopolitical upheaval spark a rethink of financial flows.

According to a report by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) due to be published later on Tuesday, one in three central banks managing a combined $5 trillion plan to increase exposure to gold over the next one-to-two years after stripping out those planning to decrease, the highest in at least five years.

The survey of 75 central banks — carried out between March and May — gives a first snapshot of the repercussions of U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day tariffs that sparked market turmoil and a slide in the safe-haven dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

Gold, which central banks have already been adding at a record pace, was seen benefiting even further longer term, with a net 40% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings over the next decade.

The dollar, the most popular currency in last year’s survey, fell to seventh place this year, OMFIF said, with 70% of those surveyed saying the U.S. political environment was discouraging them from investing in the dollar — more than twice the share a year ago.

In currencies, the euro and yuan stand to benefit the most from a diversification away from the dollar.

A net 16% of central banks surveyed by OMFIF said they plan to increase euro holdings over the next 12 to 24 months, making it the most in-demand currency, up from 7% a year ago, followed by the yuan.

But over the next decade, the yuan is more favoured, with a net 30% of central banks expecting to increase holdings and its share of global reserves seen tripling to 6%.

Momentum for change has gathered pace, with Europe signalling willingness to curb its dependence on the U.S. by boosting defence spending, including through more joint EU borrowing. Germany is ramping up spending, while the EU is trying to revive efforts to integrate its capital markets.

Public pension and sovereign wealth funds, also surveyed by OMFIF, saw Germany as the most attractive developed market.

UBS Asset Management’s Castelli said he was receiving many more questions about the euro, estimating the euro could recover to a 25% share of reserves by the end of the 2020s.

At the most bullish end, Francesco Papadia, who managed the ECB’s market operations during the debt crisis, estimated the euro could recover to 25% in as soon as two years.

Source: Globalbankingandfinance