Uganda’s economy is expected to pick up in 2024, following a slowdown in 2023. According to a recent report, the country’s real GDP growth is forecasted to reach 5.8% in 2024, after falling to 4.6% in 2023. This report highlights the sectors that are expected to drive this growth and the potential risks to this outlook.

One of the main drivers of growth is strong fixed investment. The development of Uganda’s oil sector continues to underpin investment growth, with projects such as the $10 billion Lake Albert Oil Project and the $4 billion East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline attracting significant investment inflows.

This will see fixed investment contribute 2.2 percentage points (pp) to headline growth in 2024, marginally below the 2.5pp contribution expected in 2023. This is expected to keep demand for imported capital inputs elevated, leading to a real import growth of 9.2% in 2024.

However, the outlook for exports is brighter, the report noted.

Source: Business Insider