Topline: The United States’ long-standing economic “exceptionalism” will fade as the 21st century wears on, Goldman Sachs economists predicted Tuesday in a wide-sweeping outlook for the global economy, which also outlined the greatest threats to growth worldwide.
KEY FACTS
China’s gross domestic product will surpass that of the U.S. in about 2035, the Goldman group led by Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas wrote, while India’s GDP will narrowly surpass the U.S.’ in about 2075.
The U.S. currently has the largest economy in the world by far with $23 trillion in 2021 GDP, according to the World Bank’s data, while China has the second-largest GDP at $18 trillion and India the sixth-largest at $3 trillion.
Goldman forecasts further upheaval among traditional economic powerhouses, projecting Indonesia and Nigeria to round out the five largest economies by 2075, despite not ranking in the top 15 economies today, with Japan falling from third to 12th, the United Kingdom from sixth to 10th and Germany from fourth to ninth.
Countries forecasted to slip in economic power have one thing in common: less potential for population growth and slowing global population growth worldwide means the “high-water mark of global potential growth” has already occurred, according to Goldman, noting global GDP gains will embark on a “gradually declining path” in 2030 and beyond.
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