Donald Trump’s threat to ‘51st State’ Ireland on the same level as U.K.’s Brexit risks, country’s oldest stockbroker warns.

The threats to Ireland from a Donald Trump presidency are comparable to the risks faced by the U.K. in the wake of the Brexit referendum, the country’s oldest stockbroker has warned.

In its latest health check for the Irish economy, aptly named “Dodging Bullets,” Dublin-based broker Goodbody warned Ireland that it would face major policy issues if Trump decided to implement aggressive tariffs on the EU and cut corporation taxes in the States.

Ireland runs a goods trade surplus with the U.S., owing mainly to pharmaceutical exports, while it runs a heavy services trade deficit of €134 billion ($140 billion) with the country, in part a result of royalties and licenses, registered in Ireland, being repatriated to the States.

Ireland’s links to the U.S., combined with the range of measures Trump could level against his ally, mean Ireland must prepare for several outcomes, drawing Goodbody’s comparisons with Brexit.

“Under the new US administration risks are skewed to the downside, including tariffs and corporate tax changes, but there are potential upsides too from better US dynamism and increased profitability from US firms based in Ireland,” said Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary.

Source: FORTUNE

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