ExxonMobil expects its first-quarter earnings to be higher than in Q4 by up to $2 billion, thanks to higher oil and gas prices and rising refining margins.

Exxon’s earnings in the upstream segment could be up to $900 million higher in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, due to higher oil and gas prices and timing effects, the supermajor said in an SEC filing.

Oil prices in Q1 were lower than in the same period of 2024, but they were higher than in the fourth quarter of 2024. U.S. natural gas prices, on the other hand, jumped by 30% in the first quarter this year compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, amid fast depleting U.S. inventories in the coldest winter for six years.

Exxon could see another up to $1.2 billion gain to its earnings for Q1, from its energy products division, where higher industry margins are expected to generate up to $700 million higher profits and timing effects – another up to $500 million.

Following significant declines at the end of 2024, U.S. oil refining margins recovered in the first quarter and jumped by about 20% sequentially. Analysts in The Wall Street Journal consensus forecast expect Exxon to book earnings per share of $1.72 for the first quarter, up from $1.67 EPS for the fourth quarter of 2024.

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