A potential strike on Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure could see a catastrophic drop in Iran’s crude exports, with Rystad Energy warning of a possible 80 to 90% reduction in shipments should the facility be targeted in renewed conflict. Tensions in the Middle East have been exacerbated by the recent US military action against Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude oil export hub in the Gulf. It is likely the operation deliberately bypassed oil export facilities to avoid immediately disrupting global crude flows and triggering another spike in commodity costs. “Even a brief period of restricted tanker movement tightens balances immediately — Iranian exports demonstrate heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risk, with Iran ramping up oil exports to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in preparation for the sharp decline they knew would happen after the US strike,” Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director at Rystad Energy said in an emailed commentary. Iranian exports typically fluctuate between 1.2 and 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Rystad’s analysis. However, notable spikes in exports have been observed during periods of heightened external risk. For instance, in June 2025, exports briefly exceeded 2 million bpd, the Norway-based intelligence energy agency said. This occurred when the US and Israel targeted Iranian nuclear sites and a refinery at the South Pars natural gas field (the world’s largest).

Iran’s retaliation targets key bypass infrastructure

Both instances of increased shipments coincided with potential external attacks or broader regional escalation, suggesting Iran moved to accelerate exports while shipping routes were still viable. Following the Kharg Island attacks, Iran quickly retaliated, targeting the bypass infrastructure keeping Gulf crude flowing. The March 14 attack on Fujairah port, UAE, is widely viewed as Iran’s direct response, aligning with Tehran’s earlier threat to strike US-linked regional energy facilities. Fujairah oil loadings, typically handling 1 million bpd of Murban crude and vital to the UAE’s exports, were suspended following a drone attack and fire—the second major strike since the conflict started. The Ruwais refinery, which processes approximately 922,000 bpd of liquids and mainly handles Murban crude, was targeted earlier in the week, starting on 9 March, the agency said. “The logic is straightforward. With Hormuz effectively closed, the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah and Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu represent the last 6.5 million barrels per day of viable export capacity remaining in the Gulf,” Rystad Energy said in its analysis. Fujairah processes up to 1.8 million bpd via ADCOP, while Yanbu handles up to 5 million bpd of redirected Saudi Arab Light exports. Source: Invezz