Global primary copper supply could fall short by 25 per cent by 2035 despite copper prices touching record highs, as the pipeline of new mining projects remains insufficient to meet rapidly rising demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its latest report, the IEA said copper has become one of the world’s most strategic metals, underpinning industries ranging from clean energy and transport to construction, data centres and defence. However, the agency warned that supply is struggling to keep pace with demand because new mines are becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to develop.
Based on the current project pipeline, global primary copper supply could face a 25% deficit by 2035 under today’s policy settings,” the report said.
The IEA attributed the growing supply challenge to a sharp decline in copper ore quality. Average copper ore grades at mines worldwide have dropped by 40% since 1991, making extraction more complex, capital-intensive and costlier.
Adding to the pressure, the capital required to expand existing mines has risen sharply. According to the report, the average capital intensity for brownfield expansion projects has increased 65% since 2020, approaching the investment levels typically associated with entirely new greenfield mines.
The report also highlighted a slowdown in fresh copper discoveries. Only 5% of all copper deposits discovered over the past 35 years were found in the last decade, underscoring the lack of major new resource additions despite booming long-term demand.
The agency further pointed to delays and cost overruns across several large copper mining projects, which have tightened the global copper concentrate market and heightened concerns over supply security.
For the near term, the IEA warned that limited availability of sulphuric acid poses a significant risk to solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) copper production. Combined with slower-than-expected recoveries at major mines and an already tight market, these factors are expected to keep the copper market under pressure.
The warning comes at a time when global demand for copper is accelerating, driven by the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, grid modernisation and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence-linked data centres, reinforcing copper’s status as a critical mineral for the global energy transition.
Source: firstpost